EVOLUTIONS IN THE CREDIT FIELD IN ROMANIA
Autor (i): Marius, Gust
JEL: G21
Cuvinte cheie: crisis, credit, internal credit dynamics, credit structure, risks
Abstract:
In my opinion, the crisis through which the Romanian economy passed between 2008 and 2012 had a turning point in lending. At the time of 2008, in Romania, most of the economic equilibria had deteriorated strongly. The bank financing, made through the credit lines that the Romanian banks received either from the parent banks outside the country or from other sources, was the engine of economic growth. That is why I believe that the evolution of domestic credit needs to be monitored permanently in order to quickly diagnose the "bubble" dynamics. From the data analyzed, it can quickly be concluded that the dynamics of domestic lending has been on the rise in recent years, but did not reach the 2006-2008 values. But it should not be forgotten that in those years the increases were related to much lower credit volumes than current values. Regarding the structure of credit, we see a change of structure noted and in the years of crisis, the credit for the population exceeded the credit given to enterprises. As a major difference to the 2008 crisis, when the credit engine was its currency component, the dynamics of domestic credit is currently traced by the RON component. This structural change is associated with lower risks. So the main question is whether the current credit values are long-term bearable, and future earnings expectations of borrowers will not be realized and they will no longer be able to honor their debt service to banks.
In my opinion, the crisis through which the Romanian economy passed between 2008 and 2012 had a turning point in lending. At the time of 2008, in Romania, most of the economic equilibria had deteriorated strongly. The bank financing, made through the credit lines that the Romanian banks received either from the parent banks outside the country or from other sources, was the engine of economic growth. That is why I believe that the evolution of domestic credit needs to be monitored permanently in order to quickly diagnose the "bubble" dynamics. From the data analyzed, it can quickly be concluded that the dynamics of domestic lending has been on the rise in recent years, but did not reach the 2006-2008 values. But it should not be forgotten that in those years the increases were related to much lower credit volumes than current values. Regarding the structure of credit, we see a change of structure noted and in the years of crisis, the credit for the population exceeded the credit given to enterprises. As a major difference to the 2008 crisis, when the credit engine was its currency component, the dynamics of domestic credit is currently traced by the RON component. This structural change is associated with lower risks. So the main question is whether the current credit values are long-term bearable, and future earnings expectations of borrowers will not be realized and they will no longer be able to honor their debt service to banks.
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